A Simulation-based Analysis of Transition Pathways for the Dutch Electricity System

Recent developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economical competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. In order to analyze the conjoint impact of such developments on the internal dynamics of the electricity system (grid-based and distributed generation), a simulation model is developed. The simulation experiments with the model indicate the continuation of fossil fuel dominance as the energy source, and a shift from natural gas to coal seems likely in the base case. In other cases, it is seen that a transition away from carbonintensive mode requires significant regulatory intervention, since technological developments and ‘greening’ end-users fail to trigger a system-wide transition. Moreover, it is observed that policies for carbon abatement and renewable generation support are intertwined, and may lead to unintended shifts of abatement costs to end-